FVXX20 KNES 030917
VA ADVISORY
DTG: 20140203/0917Z

VAAC: WASHINGTON

VOLCANO: TUNGURAHUA 1502-08
PSN: S0128 W07826

AREA: ECUADOR

SUMMIT ELEV: 16480 FT (5023 M)

ADVISORY NR: 2014/025

INFO SOURCE: GOES-13. GFS WINDS. HYSPLIT. SEISMIC
DETECTION. UKMET WINDS. ECMWF WINDS.

ERUPTION DETAILS: NEW EMISSION AROUND 03/0715Z.

OBS VA DTG: 03/0815Z

OBS VA CLD: SFC/FL240 S0051 W07810 - S0052 W07758
- S0102 W07759 - S0107 W07817 - S0128 W07823 -
S0126 W07830 - S0104 W07832 - S0051 W07810 MOV N
5-10KT SFC/FL380 S0126 W07803 - S0134 W07759 -
S0146 W07819 - S0137 W07826 - S0131 W07828 -
S0126 W07823 - S0126 W07803 MOV SE 10-15KT 

FCST VA CLD +6HR: 03/1430Z SFC/FL240 S0056 W07802
- S0058 W07756 - S0119 W07810 - S0129 W07823 -
S0125 W07827 - S0104 W07820 - S0056 W07802
SFC/FL380 S0202 W07737 - S0212 W07716 - S0228
W07710 - S0240 W07729 - S0226 W07747 - S0202
W07737 

FCST VA CLD +12HR: 03/2030Z SFC/FL380 NO ASH
EXPSFC/FL240 S0052 W07802 - S0057 W07754 - S0113
W07804 - S0129 W07825 - S0125 W07830 - S0103
W07820 - S0052 W07802 

FCST VA CLD +18HR: 04/0230Z SFC/FL240 NO ASH EXP

RMK: MODELS AGREE WITH HYR VA FL380 BUT NOT WITH
LOWER VA FL240.  OLDER VA HDG NNE AT FL240 IS
BECOMG DIF.  CONFIDENCE IN FCST AFT +6 HRS IS
LOW.    SEISMIC ACTIVITY HAS INCR OVER LAST HR.
...KIBLER

NXT ADVISORY: WILL BE ISSUED BY 20140203/1515Z